2026 El Nino Risks alert in Kenya

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Kenya Met and WMO are warning of a moderate-to-strong El Niño likely to hit from the months of October 2026 and possibly persist to January 2027.

1. Timeline & Forecast

August: Dry and hot. 80-82% chance El Niño conditions develop, but most of Kenya will see below average rainfall especially in Highlands West of Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, Northwestern Kenya

October-November-December:  Above average rainfall is expected. 90-96% chance El Niño persists to the end of 2026. Deputy President Kithure Kindiki says rains could possibly continue until January 2027.

Strength: Kenya Met says 81% chance it will be "very strong" with index possibly above 2.6. WMO warns if a positive Indian Ocean Dipole also develops, rainfall will be even more enhanced.

2. Main Risks

Flooding and Infrastructure damage

- Enhanced rainfall >50mm in 24hrs, some stations up to 180mm

- High risk of flash floods, landslides, mudslides especially in mountainous areas

- Damage to roads, bridges, drainage, electricity in flood-prone regions and urban areas with poor drainage. Nairobi, Mombasa, Coast, low-lying areas and NE counties are at highest risks.

Health

- Contaminated water sources, cholera outbreak and other waterborne diseases. 

Agriculture & Food Security

- Warmer temperatures and dry spell seasons threaten crop yields.

- Soil erosion, dams overflowing, farms/crops threatened

- Double threat: Poor cereal harvest now due to depressed rains, followed by El Niño rains that disrupt transport.

Displacement

- Past El Niños in 1997, 2015, 2023 caused displacement. FAO/WFP put Kenya on priority list for anticipatory action.

3. Government Preparedness

- Ad Hoc Cabinet Committee on El Niño chaired by DP Kithure Kindiki.

- National El Niño Contingency Plan activated: flood mitigation, evacuation plans, reinforcing roads/bridges, pre-positioning emergency supplies, farmer advisories

- FAO and WFP asking donors for $202M to help vulnerable communities prepare.

Key things to note

1. El Niño isn't just rain. It’s a Pacific Ocean warming that shifts rainfall patterns. For Kenya it usually means _wetter_ OND season

2. IOD matters: If positive IOD joins El Niño, expect much heavier rains

3. Split season: Dry JJA, then very wet ONDJ. Farmers are being advised to plan for both.


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